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CJSteele.com – eBook – predicting and mitigating the effects of uncertainty and random variability on technical and commercial systems
“This e-book captures all I know about creating an intuitive probabilistic design ability. One which will let you naturally deign robust, high quality and low danger systems of any kind.”
If you work inside a function where you need to increase quality or reduce risk and also you are finding that the present techniques just are not giving you the results that you need, then you’re about to learn the intuitive and easy way to combine robust design techniques with what you currently know to design the highest quality and low danger systems possible
So many of us work in locations where random variability is the significant supply from the issues we need to deal with: high quality, danger, reliability. But how many of us really comprehend the important to analysing random variability: Probabilistic Design?
I am sure that you simply have heard of Six Sigma, Value Analysis, Worth Engineering, Quality Circles, Quality Function Deployment, Design of Experiments, Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, Fault Trees, SWOT, Facilitated Risk Evaluation Process and many other similar systems which have been and gone.
But let me ask you this. Do you really comprehend how these systems actually optimise so that the unfavorable effects of random variability are reduced or eliminated?
How can it be that we all invest so much time operating in an region imbedded in probabilistic issues and yet we know subsequent to nothing about probabilistic style? Well I believe it is because of the influence of Taguchi and also the current domination of quality and risk by statisticians. My PhD supervisor told me about an argument that he had with Taguchi more than the application of basic probabilistic techniques: Taguchi rejected anything that wasn’t experimentally primarily based. Statisticians too also rely almost solely on an experimental approach. However, probabilistic design utilizes your understanding and experience to ensure that you can quickly and effortlessly design robust systems without the need for time consuming experiments. If you have seen the about page, then you definitely know how much time and effort I have place into understanding the application of probabilistic design to robustification and how important I believe they both are to someone like you.
I have been researching, teaching and applying probabilistic style for years, and during this time I’ve learnt three issues:
Applying probabilistic methods can often break your focus on designing or preparing, and this makes it difficult to properly integrate them into your work.
When you use them sufficient and learn them within the right way, probabilistic techniques turn out to be intuitive. They’re then easy to apply, and you can then easily integrate them with your other abilities and
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